OAG forecasts air travel in 2015

World Aviation

OAG, is today announcing the key findings of its ‘What is shaping air travel in 2015?’ trends report, this detailed analysis of the global aviation sector reveals the predicted trends for next year.

The report predicts lower jet fuel prices, the continued rise in demand for outbound travel from China, aviation reforms in India and the opportunities and challenges for air transport in Africa will be among the major industry issues in 2015.

OAG’s 2015 Trends Report shows that the jet fuel price dropped by 20 per cent compared to a year earlier, resulting in a saving of US$7bn on the fuel bill for the global airline industry in 2014.

OAG business development director ASPAC Mark Clarkson, said that it is being reported that lower fuel prices are good news for airlines however that may not be the case.

“While it is being reported that lower fuel prices are good news for airlines and their passengers, there is the possibility that these low prices reflect weaker demand in the global economy, in which case we could be at the top of the commercial aviation business cycle,” Mr Clarkson said.

The report says even at 6 per cent passenger growth each year, the Chinese travel market would double every 12 years, many of the largest markets for travel to and from China are within North East Asia, and the number one market is South Korea.

Growth in these markets comes at a time when total international passengers from China grew by 19 per cent in September 2014, according to OAG Traffic Analyser.

Changes are afoot in the Indian travel market, with a new government elected in 2014, there has been a change of sentiment around aviation, although policy changes are yet to follow.

The air transport sector is being recognized as an economic catalyst and not simply a source of convenient tax revenues, anticipated reforms include scrapping the rule that has allowed Indian airlines to operate international routes only if they have operated domestic routes for at least five years.

In 2015, it is expected that continued growth to and from Africa, and the China-Africa market will be one to watch, in the 12 months to September 2014, 28 out of 59 African countries experienced growth from China in excess of 60 per cent.

Source = ETB Travel News: Lewis Wiseman
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